Political decline: ANC’s disconnect from South African voters

Anda Mbikwana, is a PhD candidate and a municipal finance and leadership in governance expect, he writes in his personal capacity.

Anda Mbikwana, is a PhD candidate and a municipal finance and leadership in governance expect, he writes in his personal capacity.

Published Oct 21, 2024

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The 100-day celebration of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration under South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) serves as a significant reflection of the ruling African National Congress (ANC)’s current state of governance.

Traditionally, the first 100 days of a new government or administration offer a critical opportunity to gauge leadership efficacy, policy direction, and the capacity of the governing party to deliver on its electoral promises.

This period is used by successful governments to provide a progress report, realign priorities, and build momentum for the rest of their tenure. Unfortunately, the ANC’s approach to this landmark was a missed opportunity.

Instead of engaging with the pressing concerns of a politically maturing electorate, the party prioritised spectacle over substance, holding a “street bash” that highlighted a deepening disconnect between the ANC and its constituents.

The significance of this symbolic 100-day milestone in the context of South African governance, examine the ANC’s political strategies to evolving public sentiment and consider the long-term implications for both the party and the broader political landscape.

The First 100 Days: A Global Benchmark of Governance

Across global democracies, the first 100 days of any administration are viewed as a barometer for the effectiveness of governance. It allows both the public and analysts to evaluate whether the incoming leadership is on track to meet its campaign promises and whether its strategies are aligned with national priorities.

For South Africa, this period holds even greater weight as the country navigates complex socio-economic challenges, including widespread poverty, unemployment, and service delivery failures.

The GNU was expected to function as a symbol of political renewal, bringing together disparate parties under a shared mandate of national unity and rebuilding public trust.

The Ramaphosa administration, however, chose to celebrate this occasion with a focus on superficial pageantry rather than engaging in serious reflection.

The absence of meaningful discussion on policy interventions — particularly around poverty alleviation, addressing inequality, and enhancing service delivery — raises concerns about the ANC’s current approach to governance.

This spectacle-centred celebration contrasts sharply with the political maturity of South Africa’s electorate, which is increasingly disillusioned by the party’s inability to address critical socio-economic issues.

The Growing Disconnect Between the ANC and Its Electorate

The celebratory tone of the 100-day event reveals a widening gap between the ruling ANC and the concerns of South Africa’s citizens. In its earlier years, the ANC’s political strategy hinged on a deep connection with the electorate, particularly in marginalised communities where promises of liberation, transformation, and economic empowerment resonated deeply.

However, the past decade has seen growing dissatisfaction with the party’s governance failures, particularly around service delivery in urban strongholds like Gauteng.

Recent electoral trends suggest that the ANC’s grip on power is slipping, with increasing numbers of voters either abstaining from elections or shifting their support to opposition parties. Despite these warning signs, the ANC has shown a reluctance to engage in meaningful introspection. Instead, its focus appears to be on maintaining power at all costs, often through symbolic gestures that fail to address the root causes of socio-economic distress.

This disconnection is compounded by the ANC’s fixation on retaining control of Gauteng’s key metropolitan areas. While these urban strongholds remain politically significant, the party’s lack of engagement with pressing local issues, such as failing infrastructure and growing unemployment, has eroded its support base.

The 100-day celebration was an opportunity to acknowledge these governance failures and present a credible plan for renewal. By failing to do so, the ANC has positioned itself as a party more focused on symbolic power rather than addressing the practical realities of governance.

Implications for the Future: ANC’s Potential Role as an Opposition Party

The ANC’s failure to engage in introspection during this critical period may have long-term consequences for its political future. With public trust in government at a historical low and electoral support waning, the party risks transitioning from a governing giant to a political opposition.

What makes this potential transition particularly problematic is the ANC’s apparent denial of its diminishing relevance. Even as the party celebrates its “achievements”, it seems ill-prepared to face the reality of its underperformance over the past three decades.

This lack of reflection was evident in the ANC’s narrative during the 100-day celebration, where there was little acknowledgment of governance failures or concrete plans to address key challenges.

Instead, the party seems to cling to outdated strategies, including populist rhetoric and symbolic gestures, which may have once resonated with the electorate but now appear out of touch with the changing political climate.

If the ANC does not recognise its political decline and shift its focus towards meaningful policy interventions, it may soon find itself in opposition. However, its long history as a governing party raises questions about its capacity to adapt to this new role.

The party has already begun to present itself as an “effective opposition”, but without a history of self-correction and accountability, it is unlikely that the ANC will thrive in this capacity. South African voters, particularly in urban areas, have grown increasingly critical of political rhetoric not backed by tangible results.

Conclusion

The ANC’s handling of the 100-day celebration of the GNU is emblematic of a party at odds with the evolving political landscape of South Africa. Instead of using this crucial moment for introspection and addressing its governance failures, the ANC opted for spectacle over substance, further alienating an electorate that is increasingly demanding accountability and progress.

This moment underscores the ANC’s diminishing relevance in a rapidly changing political environment, and unless the party adapts its strategies to meet the needs of South Africans, it risks being relegated to the opposition benches soon.

For a party that once commanded unparalleled political loyalty, the transition to opposition is not just a potential reality — it may be inevitable without meaningful change.

The first 100 days have revealed not just the failures of the current administration but the broader decline of a political institution once central to South Africa’s democracy.

Anda Mbikwana, is a PhD candidate and a municipal finance and leadership in governance expect, he writes in his personal capacity.