As US citizens go to the polls today, experts say that the outcome of the US presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will have an impact on South Africa both economically and politically.
Experts believe that South Africa’s and the US’s differing views on the Israel and Palestine conflict would affect relations between the two nations whether Trump or Harris becomes president. However, they said a Trump presidency would likely have more of an impact on the South African economy.
International relations expert Dr Noluthando Phungula from the University of KwaZulu-Natal said if Trump wins, his focus will be solely on US interests.
“Donald Trump’s domestic and foreign policy position is clear; his presidency will prioritise growing the US economy. A Trump presidency would mean SA is placed under pressure to openly choose its allies. He is likely to ask for a guarantee of South Africa’s choice of the US instead of the rising superpower China.”
Phungula added that Harris is likely to keep the majority of policies of the Biden administration.
“Should she win, her administration might not be as openly aggressive as the Trump presidency but I suspect it might be as damaging on numerous fronts.”
Phungula said that the US has in the past utilised the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) to influence SA.
“A Trump administration is likely to use the agreement to get SA to align with the US. Harris, on the other hand, during her visit to African countries reiterated the importance of the agreement and her commitment to its continuity.”
Phungula added that Harris has indicated that she will not be silent about the suffering in the Israel and Palestine conflict.
“Despite expressing concerns over the deaths of too many civilians in Gaza, she has nevertheless maintained that her support for the Israeli state is unwavering.
“The situation in Gaza is unlikely to change under Trump too. In his previous tenure, Trump openly acknowledged Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Based on this, both candidates would obviously not be pleased with SA’s meddling in the conflict, particularly with SA taking the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ).”
Unisa Professor Emeritus of International Law Andre Thomashausen said that the Harris campaign involves pushing back Chinese and Russian influence in Africa.
“She wants to secure a military victory for Ukraine over Russia and ‘permanently’ remove any security threats to Israel. She will be particularly hostile towards South Africa’s non-alignment policy in regard to Ukraine and international legal activism against Israel.”
Thomashausen added that Trump saw a correlation between economic underdevelopment and the lack of energy generation in Africa and opposes the burden of aggressive climate change targets on Africa.
He added that Trump also said he wanted to use the might of the US to end within the shortest time possible the use of military force in Gaza and in the Ukraine.
Raymond Parsons, a professor at the North-West University Business School, said a Trump victory does pose economic risks for South Africa.
“Of importance for the SA economy in the event of a Trump victory are the obvious greater risks to SA’s American exports and whether it will also affect the AGOA duty-free benefits in particular. However, if Trump’s bark as president turns out to be worse than his bite, the economic consequences may well be minimal.
“A Harris presidency, on the other hand, will broadly mean much the same predictable approach globally and to SA as the Biden administration has taken in recent years.”
Waldo Krugell, an economics professor at North-West University, said that in the short run, the election outcome causes uncertainty for the exchange rate and the market.
“In terms of US trade policy, a lot has been said about protectionism and US tariffs against China, but neither of the candidates has said much, if anything, about AGOA, Africa, or South Africa.”