Nkosikhulule Nyembezi
Cape Town - After the sigh of relief heard around the country following the defeat of the corrupt Jacob Zuma camp at the ANC’s Nasrec 2017 conference and the subsequent forced resignation of Zuma as the country’s president in February 2018, a grim realisation should be dawning: the threat of the remnants of the Zuma camp return to the Union Buildings after the 2024 national and provincial elections is growing amid President Cyril Ramaphosa’s poor leadership and indecision.
Ramaphosa’s first task is winning the party’s presidential nomination, but that hurdle is increasing daily.
His grip on his party remains loose despite a convincing second-term victory in the ANC’s Nasrec 2022 conference, with many of his putative rivals coming close to determining the placements of their preferred candidates in key government positions, including the new face of the party election campaign.
Of course, the first round of formal list conferences to nominate candidates is months away, and much could change, but the shape of the race is already clear – and Ramaphosa has lost dominance.
Witness the reaction to an event that would once have been life-giving for any politician with an international reputation for being non-aligned with the narrow interests of the world’s superpower nations: last week’s decision by the government to appoint an independent inquiry led by a retired judge to probe explosive allegations made by a US diplomat that ammunition was loaded onto a sanctioned Russian ship when it docked at the Simon’s Town naval base in December.
It is now 40 years after Dieter Gerhardt – the former commander of the strategic Simon’s Town naval dockyard – was arrested by the FBI in New York and convicted of high treason as a spy for the Soviet Union, and South Africa, Russia and the US are embroiled in another diplomatic storm over the same naval base.
The latest diplomatic storm comes as the Ramaphosa administration continues to flip-flop over its relationship with Russia in the full glare of the international community – and the ICC – ahead of the August BRICS summit.
And the rand reflected the turmoil, with one of the world’s weakest emerging market currencies failing last Thursday, trading at R19.18/$ – its worst level since 2021.
Washington was quick to acknowledge the efforts to establish an inquiry.
“It certainly would be a welcome step,” said State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel, articulating the view held by many millions of South Africans that this allegation against the president of clandestine support of Russia in the war against Ukraine – and any other suspicion of flaunting of international human rights protocols – proves that the ANC has lost its credibility at home and abroad.
It is of little help for The Presidency to say it noted with concern the remarks by the US Ambassador to SA, Reuben Brigety, alleging the supply by SA of weapons to Russia and lamenting that ‘the ambassador’s remarks undermine the spirit of cooperation and partnership that characterised the recent engagements between US government officials and a South African official delegation led by National Security Special Adviser to the President, Dr Sydney Mufumadi’.
Spokesperson Vincent Magwenya also said Brigety’s public posture was counter-productive and undermined constructive engagements.
I saw it as of little help in light of Ramaphosa’s spectacular display of indifference last Thursday. He was caught off-guard in Parliament when DA leader John Steenhuisen snuck in a question not on the order paper, asking the president to confirm whether SA loaded weapons of war on board the vessel.
Ramaphosa replied: ‘We are all aware of the news that we all became aware of, of the Lady R and that whole matter is being looked into and whilst the process continues.
“I want you to allow that process to continue to reach its fruition.’
His approval numbers among political commentators in the media – including self-proclaimed fans of the Ramaphoria and New Dawn sloganeering – go down.
For the most vocal amongst these fans, the allegations merely vindicated repeated claims that Ramaphosa puts the ANC’s factional interests above the country concerning relations with Russia. The pattern is clear: what should preserve him only makes him decay faster.
This antithesis means those South Africans who wish to see Ramaphosa win a second presidential term need to let go of the hope that his handling so far of important state matters will dispatch him once and for all to the Union Buildings as a critical player in the imminent coalition national government likely to emerge after the 2024 elections.
Multiple other pending challenges could further expose and worsen Ramaphosa’s precarious hold on power, perhaps the most serious regarding South Africa’s hosting of the BRICS summit in August.
Last month Ramaphosa sent a delegation to Washington to smooth the way for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s planned attendance at the summit amid an international court arrest warrant.
The delegation met senior US officials, including an adviser to President Joe Biden.
But on the current evidence, a slew of poor leadership verdicts will increasingly continue to seriously dent Ramaphosa’s standing in the ANC and the general electorate.
The political landscape has changed dramatically since Zuma’s time. It is no longer fashionable to act as Zuma intuited back in 2012, in the illusion that the ANC will govern until Jesus returns to Earth.
None of the challenges facing the Ramaphosa administration projects a certainty outcome in line with upholding the Constitutional principles.
Still, they all have possible positive consequences in awakening our vigilance and repositioning the country to become a more credible player in international politics.
As South Africans, we need to snap out of the complacency brought by the Mandela legacy and work as if we are in a race against the devil and lagging – because we are.
We need to address the country’s inadequate foreign policy issue fast: to get South Africa to promote a human rights approach over a divisive narrow political agenda.
We need to sell our collective achievements in the peaceful resolution of conflicts, not least our strong record of promoting economic and political cooperation.
And we must sound the alarm every day, warning of the danger the lapses in the Ramaphosa administration pose. Because it is clear and it is present.
Nyembezi is a researcher, policy analyst and human rights activist
Cape Times