Can Floyd Shivambu's Afrika Mayibuye Movement reshape South Africa's political future for the 2026 elections?

Political analysts expressed scepticism about South Africa's political landscape following the launch of the Afrika Mayibuye Movement, with some questioning the authenticity of the party and its potential performance in the 2026 local government elections.

Floyd Shivambu, a former member of the African National Congress (ANC), the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party), announced Afrika Mayibuye Movement's registration as a political party.

Political analyst, Goodenough Mashego, indicated that this move was long overdue and should have been anticipated.

"Floyd Shivambu announcing Afrika Mayibuye Movement over the weekend should have been seen from the moment he left MKP. He left MKP, and it was obvious that he was going to form his own party; that is why he never aligned with any political party, and the process that he was going to consult was done for protocol purposes so that he doesn't get asked why he left," Mashego said.

"He did that already having concluded in his mind that he is going to form a political party, that's why even the branding was there before that. The announcement was a birth after a long pregnancy."

Shivambu made the announcement on Friday, marking the end of a consultation process which spanned around two months, having started in late June.

"We have a certificate which recognises us as a political party, after complying with all the requirements. What that means is that Afrika Mayibuye Movement will participate in the next elections," Shivambu said at a media briefing in Midrand on Friday.

Mashego said that the new party would face challenges in garnering support, which would translate to votes.

"The fact that they are compliant for 2026 is a great thing for them; there is no contestation of the name, the logo or anything. The question is: 'How are they going to perform next year?' Because there is space for more parties in South Africa as long as those parties are going to play on the far left, the space that the Economic Freedom Fighters used coming in with their seven non-negotiable cardinal pillars," Mashego said.

"The EFF of the cardinal pillars and the EFF recently, when [leader Julius] Malema spoke of Zimbabweans getting jobs in Zimbabwe are two different stances, it shows they have shifted a little bit from the far left, because they realised that their stance on immigration cost them votes in 2024, so Afrika Mayibuye should expect to perform badly at the local elections next year and better at the national elections in 2029, however they'll need to go to the far far left, to the left of the EFF, that is where they are going to have a voice and space."

Mashego said tensions were high in South Africa and warned that the party should position itself to align with citizens.

"The political landscape has the left, the right and the centre, the EFF is on the left, the ANC on the centre left, the [Democratic Alliance] DA on the right, [Inkatha Freedom Party] IFP on the right, MKP may say they are on the left but I believe they are on the right if not on the centre right and the [Patriotic Alliance] PA on the right," Mashego said.

"You look at the policies of a party and their messaging, and their messaging is not different from that of Trump when you look at immigration. When you are on the far left, you cannot talk badly about immigrants, even if it is illegal immigration, so if Afrika Mayibuye is going to be true to its message, they are not going to perform well next year. I don't see them in a different light to EFF and MKP; all these parties had euphoria, people liked them and voted for them when they ascended the political space and contested elections," he said.

"Mayibuye can enjoy ascendence because nobody has seen and tested them, but Floyd Shivambu is known, and I think he is damaged goods in a way. Mayibuye will do better after 2027 if Shivambu is not the president of the party. I don't think he is the right person, he cannot make his political history from the ANC, EFF, and MKP disappear."

Expressing similar sentiments, political analyst Hlumelo Xaba said the Afrika Mayibuye Movement comes at a time when South Africa’s multiparty system is very congested.

According to the recent figures that were released by the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), there are a total of 472 political parties currently registered. 

Xaba said that, contrary to this rising figure of political parties, there was a decline in voter turnout, meaning that South Africans were gradually losing confidence in the current system, which will make it challenging for new parties to thrive as a result of the electorate’s fatigued participation.

Xaba said Afrika Mayibuye Movement was established to try and challenge two of Shivambu's former parties.

"Shivhambu’s approach to garner support for his new party seems to be underscored by a desire to discredit the EFF and MK Party. Albeit he alluded to the fact that his party won’t be focusing on the EFF and the MKP, his public utterances during the consultation process suggested otherwise," he said.

"With the 2026 local government elections taking place in just over 12 months from now, it remains to be seen whether or not this new party will be able to galvanise enough support to become a serious player in SA politics," Xaba said.

"Although Shivhambu is a well-known figure within the politics of South Africa, given his illustrious political background, he doesn’t necessarily have the gravitas and charisma that some prominent political leaders possess. This will make it challenging for him to attract the large numbers that his party will require in order for it to succeed in the local government election and beyond that."

Afrika Mayibuye Movement spokesperson, Sydney Baloyi, responding to the question of what is going to set their party apart from the existing ones, said: "All 610 parties currently registered at the IEC have failed to arrest the drastic decline in voter participation. This is a clear sign of voter dissatisfaction.

"We will provide the first-ever blueprint for South Africans to receive total freedom and emancipation now. This begins with implementing our restoration manifesto resolutions. We will call on like-minded South Africans to join us in expanding on the restoration manifesto through a detailed policy conference."

Baloyi said that they would participate across all sectors of society, from community organisations, trade unions and mainstream politics at a national level.

"It is also important to note that the Afrika Mayibuye Movement has multiple manifestations; we are beginning the implementation of the Mayibuye Social Assistance Plan, we are instituting the coordination of the traditional leadership wing, the Women’s, Youth’s, Civil Society’s, Professionals’, Legal, Medics, Union and other manifestations of the Afrika Mayibuye Movement."

Throwing the membership's weight behind Shivambu, Baloyi said: "We believe that president Floyd Shivambu is the most accomplished, principled and revolutionary leader currently active in the South African political landscape.

"During his 23 years of political service as a student leader, as a youth leader and as a national leader, president Shivambu has uncompromisingly championed the welfare of working class and ordinary South Africans," Baloyi said.

"In the current landscape, these are the most aggrieved voters in the country. Given his skillset and educational background, we feel confident that South Africans will join us in nominating President Floyd Shivambu as the vanguard of this 21st-century liberation movement," he said.

"President Floyd Shivambu will use his depth of understanding of progressive party politics to build a resilient coalition of political forces to jointly work together with the single-minded agenda of total freedom and emancipation now."

The Star