Ranking pressure: Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks chase perfect tour to shape 2027 World Cup fate

When the 2027 Rugby World Cup draw takes place on 3 December, all eyes in South Africa will turn to where the Springboks end up — and who might stand in their way on the road to a record fifth title and going back-to-back-to-back under Rassie Erasmus.

The global showpiece in Australia may still be two years away, but the next few weeks could shape the Boks’ 2027 campaign before a ball is even kicked Down Under.

World Rugby’s ranking system will determine the seeding for the draw, and with five Tests remaining this year — against Japan, France, Italy, Ireland and Wales — the Springboks’ position in the top three is far from guaranteed. Every result matters, every ranking point will carry weight, and every performance contributes to what kind of path awaits Erasmus’ team in Australia.

The Springboks currently hold the No 1 spot in the world, alongside New Zealand and Ireland. Staying among the top three will ensure they enter the 2027 draw as a top seed, avoiding the prospect of another “pool of death” that has shadowed them in recent tournaments.

In both 2019 and 2023, early draws placed some of the top teams in the same groups. This creates unbalanced pools and prematurely eliminates some heavyweight sides. South Africa’s 2023 campaign saw them grouped with the Irish and an unpredictable Scotland side. That brought along a brutal start that tested their depth and resilience from the first game.

Erasmus and his management team know how much an early draw can shape a campaign. Avoiding another stacked pool is not about taking an easier path, but about managing resources, injuries, and momentum throughout the tournament. A favourable draw allows for better planning and ensures the team can peak at the right time.

That makes the upcoming Year-end tour crucial. Balancing experimentation with the need for results will be tricky, but the settled squad Erasmus selected shows that they won’t be risking too much.

Wins over France and Ireland should secure South Africa’s ranking in the top three, but they also know a slip against Japan, Italy, or Wales could prove costly. That is why the world champions are not taking any chances when it comes to their matches. They went unbeaten overseas last year, so the aim will be to emulate that and maintain their No 1 spot.

Anything less than that and the Boks could run the risk of having another tough pool in 2027. One loss in the pool stages, then, would mean they will play with a knife to their throats for the rest of the tournament, just like in 2023.

That is something they would want to avoid at all costs, which makes the next five matches critical ahead of 3 December.