All Blacks, Springboks' recent struggles make Eden Park cliffhanger too close to call

The Springboks have arrived in Auckland to face the All Blacks in arguably the best possible psychological state after a sobering series against the Wallabies.

The Boks are in second place in the World Rugby standings thanks to losing a Test to Australia in Johannesburg, and face off against the No 1-ranked team, New Zealand, in matches in Auckland (September 6) and Wellington a week later.

While few rugby fans will accuse the Springboks of arrogance under “feet-on-the-ground” coach Rassie Erasmus, the reality is that the Boks are chastened by a series recently shared with a Wallabies team that was tipped to be heavily beaten by the Boks in South Africa.

The reality is that the Aussies went home with five Rugby Championship points, compared to the four of the Springboks, which makes the levelled series seem like a loss for the Boks.

Erasmus’ men understand that they have to ratchet up a level if they are to be the first Bok team to win in Auckland in 88 years, and the first team to beat New Zealand at their Eden Park fortress since France did the business 31 years ago.

On this subject, much has been said about the Boks winning just once in Auckland in 12 attempts over the decades, but nobody has remembered that Francois Pienaar’s Springboks drew 18-18 at Eden Park in the third Test of the 1994 tour under coach Ian McIntosh.

The Boks had lost the first and second Tests, and while a draw is like “kissing your sister,” as Bok legend Mark Andrews said at the time, it was not a loss.

Still, the All Blacks are nigh on unbeatable on their holy ground, and if they beat the Boks on September 6, it will be their 51st consecutive match without defeat at Eden Park.

Given that record, the All Blacks are usually outright favourites to beat anyone in New Zealand, but reality is biting hard down in the Land of the Long White Cloud. Last week, the Kiwis shed yet another record when they lost for the first time on Argentine soil.

Last year, there was a first when they lost to the Pumas in Wellington. And two years previously, they lost to the South Americans in the Covid-19 Rugby Championship tournament held in Australia.

In short, the All Blacks are not the invincible threat they previously were. They have lost five matches since Crusaders legend Scott Robertson took over from Ian Foster, and they have lost four times to Argentina in the last four years. Before that, they had beaten the Pumas 36 times in a row since the teams first met in 1981.

Robertson, who won Super Rugby titles with the Crusaders with ruthless regularity, has got to the five-match loss mark faster than the four previous All Blacks coaches in Foster, Sir Steve Hansen, Sir Graham Henry, and John Mitchell.

That is a lot of “Sirs” amid statistics that tell a story of dimming New Zealand dominance in world rugby.

With New Zealand returning home after a loss in Argentina, and the Springboks arriving in New Zealand having failed to shoot out the lights against the Wallabies, where is the smart money on next week’s “rematch” of the 2023 World Cup final?

The Boks will be slim favourites if they can fix three areas — the breakdown, where they were mercilessly exposed by the Australians; their discipline, where they frivolously gave away penalties; and their defence, where the Wallabies enjoyed six clean line-breaks in Cape Town alone, while outscoring the Boks by nine tries to six over the two Tests.