Why this winter isn't the coldest even though it feels like it is

Despite several cold fronts in the country and plummeting, bone-chilling temperatures, this is not the coldest winter South Africa has ever experienced - in fact, it is a normal and slightly warmer winter.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has confirmed that the weather is not unusual. 

In May, the Weather Service stated: "The seasonal forecast indicates below-normal rainfall for most parts of the country. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during the winter season in most areas of South Africa."

While the current temperatures may have us reaching for hot water bottles, electric blankets, and heaters, what we are experiencing is likely a cold snap or a cold wave.

This phenomenon refers to a period of exceptionally cold weather, characterised by the influx of frigid air across a large area. A cold snap is typically marked by a significant drop in average temperatures, well below the regional norms, and can also bring snow and heavy rainfall.

In 2023, South Africa experienced colder-than-usual weather, with SAWS reporting that it observed lower maximum temperatures for June and July in the western and southern parts of South Africa. Some parts in the Northern, Western and Eastern Cape were 2°C colder than average in winter.

SAWS also reported that June's maximum temperatures were warmer than average across the central, eastern, and northeastern regions of South Africa. In contrast, July experienced slightly colder to near-normal temperatures in parts of Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, and KwaZulu-Natal. Notably, certain areas in Limpopo recorded temperatures that were 3-4°C above the average during June.

A report by the World Meteorological Organization published in May 2025 echoes SAWS' predictions of a warm year. 

"There is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years (2025 - 2029) will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record."

It further stated that there is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5°C. However, long-term warming, averaged over decades, remains below 1.5°C.

It is also predicted that Arctic warming will continue to outstrip the global average. Lastly, precipitation patterns are expected to exhibit significant regional variations.

IOL