Power shift: Why Steenhuisen won't retain DA influence like Zille and Leon did

Outgoing Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen is not expected to retain any significant influence within the party after its federal conference in April, according to political analysts.

Analysts argue that unlike former DA leaders Tony Leon and Helen Zille, Steenhuisen has not left a lasting organisational or electoral legacy that would secure him an informal power base once his term ends.

Political analyst Sandile Swana said the DA has a clear tradition of keeping former leaders close to the centre of power, but believes Steenhuisen does not fit into that category.

“The DA has retained veterans like Helen Zille and Tony Leon, who continue to exert real influence within the party. Steenhuisen has lost favour, both internally and among funders, and I do not see him playing an influential role over the next five years,” Swana said.

He added that while some younger leaders, including Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, may still respect Steenhuisen, that alone would not translate into authority.

“They may consult him many years from now for advice, but real power will remain with Zille and Leon. They will continue to call the shots, not Steenhuisen,” Swana said.

According to Swana, the DA is likely to focus on giving Steenhuisen what he described as a “soft landing” rather than positioning him for future leadership or strategic roles.

Political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast echoed this view, saying Zille and Leon had tangible successes to show for their time at the helm, something Steenhuisen lacked.

“I don’t think there will be a role for him going forward. Zille and Leon grew the party during their leadership. Steenhuisen did not. If the party still wanted him at the centre, he would be contesting again in April,” Breakfast said.

The DA has so far declined to clarify what role, if any, Steenhuisen will play after the conference. Questions sent to the party’s communications department were not answered by deadline.

Another analyst, Sethulego Matebesi, said he expects Steenhuisen to revert to being an ordinary party member once his leadership term ends.

“He was clearly constrained. You had people inside the party briefing the media on what he was going to say before he even spoke. That suggests he was being managed and pushed aside,” Matebesi said.

Questions also remain about Steenhuisen’s future as a cabinet minister. Matebesi said this would largely depend on whether he remains in Parliament as part of the DA’s representation.

“That could change if the party decides to recall him from Parliament. There is also the possibility that he may be closely guided in how he runs the ministry, especially given claims that he has been too comfortable with the ANC,” he said.

Cape Times