Decisions taken in Paris could have profound ramifications for society and life on the planet, writes Tony Carnie.
1. 120 YEARS OF TALKING: The first scientific inkling that humanity was altering the Earth’s complex climate system emerged almost 120 years ago.
Way back in 1896, Swedish chemist and Nobel prizewinner Svante Arrhenius began to develop the “greenhouse” theory.
He argued that the temperature of the Earth would heat up perceptibly as greater volumes of coal and other fossil fuels were burnt by industry.
But it would take many more decades before scientists started to ring the warning bells more loudly, when the first World Climate Conference was held in Geneva in 1979.
Finally, in 1994, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change came into effect, with the aim of preventing “dangerous” levels of climate change.
Since then, there have been 21 meetings in cities around the world (including Durban) to encourage 195 countries to co-operate with each other to curb rising carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.
2. WHAT CAME OUT OF THE DURBAN COP17 MEETING? Four years ago in Durban, the UN member states agreed to negotiate a new treaty that would bind all nations – rich and poor – to reduce their emissions.
Before this, most of the richer industrialised nations (with the notable exception of the US) had agreed to reduce emissions in terms of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
However, without the US, the first stage of the Kyoto agreement hardly made a dent in global emission levels and by the time delegates met in Durban, China had overtaken the US as the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.
While the Durban agreement was hailed by many politicians and negotiators as a significant turning point, it delayed the final negotiations to the Paris meeting and used language which preserved plenty of wriggle room.
3. WHAT IS A “DANGEROUS” LEVEL OF CLIMATE CHANGE? Under the current UN agreements, member nations have set an average 2°C global temperature increase as their yardstick – the line in the sand which must not be crossed.
It has been argued that crossing this threshold opens the door to a range of unacceptably dangerous changes to the climate system – including a significant rise in sea level, dips in food crop yields, more frequent droughts or an increase in storm events.
However, unless emissions are reduced dramatically, scientists believe the world will cross the 2°C line quite soon.
Some argue that people are dying already from climate change – though others may have been spared from freezing to death because of warmer temperatures.
4. RISING SEA LEVELS: The leaders of the world’s small island states are calling for a new temperature threshold of 1.5°C to ensure that their nations are not drowned or flooded by rising sea levels.
Tony de Brum, foreign minister for the Marshall Islands, says: “For atoll island countries like mine, lying less than two metres above the rising oceans, the new (Paris) agreement will play a big part in determining whether our countries survive into the second half of the century … It’s a matter of life or death.”
The UN’s expert panel on climate change says sea levels are rising at a faster rate compared with the past 2 000 years and will continue to rise for centuries, even if all greenhouse gas emissions cease tomorrow.
If emissions are not curbed dramatically, the expert panel projects that sea levels could rise by 1m by the end of the century – enough to flood 17 000 km² of Bangladesh, displacing 15 million people.
If the Greenland ice sheets were to melt entirely, sea levels would rise about 7m – but the expert panel says they have been unable to pinpoint the exact temperature point that could trigger irreversible melting.
5. EARLY WARNINGS FROM REMOTE ISLANDS: Two remote and tiny islands – more than 2 000km south of Durban – became part of South African territory in 1948. Since then, Marion Island and Prince Edward Island have been studied intensively by local scientists to reveal strong evidence of a rapidly changing climate system.
Over the past 60 years, the sea surface temperature around these islands has risen by more than 1°C and rainfall has declined by nearly 500mm. Sunshine hours have increased by more than 200 hours annually and the temperature of the islands’ interior has risen nearly 4°C. The mountain-top glacier on Marion Island is melting and shrinking and some plant species are “migrating” to higher altitudes to stay within their chosen temperature niches.
6. BIRDS AND FISH ON THE MOVE: Closer to mainland South Africa, several fish species are also on the move. One is the cat-faced rock cod. Once found only along the Mozambique coast, they are now common between Durban and Richards Bay. Recently they have moved as far south as the De Hoop marine reserve near Cape Agulhas.
In their new book Climate Change, leading SA climate scientists Bob and Mary Scholes and Mike Lucas say a variety of sea plants and animals are relocating as the sea becomes warmer.
Large numbers of anchovies in the Western Cape have been shifting towards cooler waters, while off the KZN coastline, corals are moving south.
Several bird species are also changing their migration habits. European barn swallows are leaving South Africa 11 days earlier than 15 years ago and returning nine days later – though it is less clear whether they are responding to climate changes in Europe or South Africa.
7. HOW MUCH GAS DOES SA PRODUCE? Overall, South Africa generates nearly 1.5% of the world’s greenhouse gases. It might not sound like much, but considering that South Africa is home to just 0.7% of the world’s human population, these emissions are way above what they should be.
South Africa is also the biggest emitter in Africa, and depending on what figures are used, is ranked at somewhere between the 10th and 17th biggest emitter in the world.
We are still far behind China (about 23%) and the US (about 16%) when measured by total emissions, but in the same league as the UK and Australia (both close to 1.5% of total global emissions).
One of the main reasons for these high emissions is South Africa’s heavy dependence on coal-fired power stations. To curb emissions, still rising about 3% each year, radical changes will be needed in how we generate electricity.
Emissions could also be slashed by building better public transport systems. In the Nigerian capital of Lagos, a new Bus Rapid Transport system has led to a 13% reduction in carbon emissions and reduced journey times by up to half.
8. WHY IS AFRICA SO VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE? Partly because of its geographical location close to the warm equator, Africa is especially vulnerable. An analysis of temperature records over the past 50 years shows temperatures in Africa have been rising at more than double the global rate.
A recent study led by Professor Francois Engelbrecht of the CSIR suggests temperatures in subtropical Africa will rise at about 1.5 times the global rate. Even if temperature increases are kept below 2°C globally, temperatures in parts of Africa could rise by 4° to 6°C by the end of the century.
Engelbrecht and his colleagues also expect a drastic increase in the number of heatwaves, fires and droughts in parts of Africa.
Tens of millions of African subsistence farmers still depend on rain-fed crops such as maize. They would be particularly vulnerable to heatwaves, less rain and reduced soil moisture.
9. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR SOUTH AFRICA? The current drought in KwaZulu-Natal and other parts of the country provides an unwelcome glimpse into what could lie ahead.
Scholes and Lucas suggest if temperatures rise above 6°C there will be “serious questions” about our ability to cope with such heat.
Significantly less rain is also projected for the Southern Cape, Limpopo and Mpumalanga by the middle of the century, although the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal could benefit from significantly more rain. But higher rainfall does not automatically mean there would be more water available.
Those places receiving 10% more rain could end up with the same or less soil moisture.
For South Africa, each 1% drop in rainfall translates into a 1.1% decrease in summer maize harvests and a 0.5% decrease in winter wheat. Each 1°C increase in temperature spells a 5% decrease in both maize and wheat production.
Livestock, meat and milk production also begin to fall steeply when daytime temperatures rise above 30°C .
10. WHAT COULD COME OUT OF PARIS NEXT WEEK? Optimists suggest that as the climate change clock ticks ever closer to the 2°C “midnight point”, negotiators are more likely than ever to put aside the historical divisions between rich and poor nations and agree to more ambitious emission cuts by all.
Environmental author George Monbiot believes the lobbying power of big oil and big coal remains a major hurdle.
“These companies have in the past financed wars to protect their position; they will not surrender the bulk of their (fossil fuel) reserves without a monumental fight.”
He points to the recent VW emissions scandal to demonstrate the weakness of self-regulation.
French economists Jean Tirole and Christian Gollier fear the Paris negotiations will boil down to countries presenting a list of good intentions and then claiming victory.
“Participating countries will do their best to ensure their commitments can’t be compared with those of others, rendering them unverifiable and thus unconstraining.”
David Hallowes, a researcher for the groundWork environmental group, says: “The parties will at all costs avoid any obligations whatsoever. They will reaffirm the goal of keeping global warming to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, but will do nothing to secure that outcome.
“In effect, they will agree to warming of 4°C or more as the corporate economy – or rather, the accumulation of capital – is given absolute priority over the planet.”
The Mercury