With many dryland farmers yet to receive adequate rain, the advisory noted “reasonable to poor” conditions in large parts of the country. Picture Courtney Africa / Independent Newspapers
The agricultural outlook for South Africa’s 2024/25 season hangs in the balance as hot and dry conditions persist, leading to rising anxieties among farmers about potential yield losses.
According to Absa AgriBusiness, these weather patterns pose a significant threat to crop production, particularly if timely rainfall does not materialise.
Dr Marlene Louw, senior economist at Absa AgriBusiness, has been closely monitoring the situation, emphasising that “sufficient rainfall within the next few days is crucial, especially in the Eastern parts of the country, which have an earlier summer grain and oilseed planting window.”
Without this much-needed moisture, the implications could echo throughout the agricultural sector.
The Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (Dalrrd) recently released a climate advisory detailing the state of veld and livestock conditions across the nation, which remain a concern.
With many dryland farmers yet to receive adequate rain, the advisory noted “reasonable to poor” conditions in large parts of the country.
The ongoing heatwave has exacerbated the situation, leading to veld fires in several provinces that have damaged grazing lands and infrastructure while resulting in livestock fatalities.
The Seasonal Climate Watch issued by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) revealed a mixed forecast.
While predictions indicate above-normal rainfall for most north-eastern summer rainfall regions throughout the summer, some inland areas may still face below-normal rainfall later in the season. This uncertainty is largely attributed to fluctuations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), calling for a cautious approach in planning agricultural activities.
Dalrrd has urged farmers to heed these forecasts diligently. Recommendations include prioritising drought-tolerant cultivars in areas experiencing consistent dry weather, while also suggesting the use of short-season cultivars.
The department also highlighted the necessity of employing pest control measures due to the anticipated hot and wet conditions. The issue of water conservation remains pertinent as farmers are reminded to comply with irrigation restrictions.
“Farmers must continually conserve resources in accordance with the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act,” Dalrrd stated, further advising systemic adjustments as conditions evolve.
Notably, livestock management has also come under scrutiny, with the department emphasising the need to align livestock numbers with the carrying capacity of existing grazing lands. Adequate water supply and shelter for animals are paramount as the risk of summer veld fires remains high until sufficient rain falls.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), however expressed optimism.
Recent rains recorded in certain areas have helped improve soil moisture, allowing farmers to proceed with planting activities for summer grains and oilseeds.
Sihlobo noted that “optimistic forecasts for good rains within the next two weeks” could prove beneficial for the sector.
As the situation develops, the Dalrrd will continue to monitor the seasonal forecast, collaborating with relevant stakeholders to raise awareness about weather patterns and implement necessary measures for disaster risk mitigation. Early-warning alerts are crucial to empowering farmers as they navigate these challenging conditions.
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