This photo taken on January 12, 2025 shows trucks loaded with electric (EVs) and hybrid vehicles in a distribution center of Chinese state-owned automobile manufacturer Changan in southwest China's Chongqing municipality.
Image: Photo by AFP / CHINA OUT
For decades, the automotive industry has been dominated by a few heavyweights. The United States produced iconic giants like Ford, Europe proudly displayed brands such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz, while Japan showcased the reliability of Toyota. A seismic shift is however underway in the automotive landscape, and at the centre of this transformation is China, a nation that has zoomed past its competitors in the realm of electric vehicles (EVs).
EV Manufacturers
The tussle for automotive supremacy shifted when traditional powerhouses like the US, Europe, and Japan began their foray into EV production. While they tinker and produce electric models at a slower pace, China has been hard at work, revolutionising its automotive sector. Brands such as Geely, Great Wall Motors (GWM), and Chery have pivoted towards producing high-quality, high-tech EVs, providing a competitive edge by offering these vehicles at significantly lower prices compared to its Western counterparts.
As 2025 unfolds, it is clear from the last quarter of 2024, that China's ambitions have been realised. BYD, a frontrunner in the EV market, has surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest EV manufacturer, achieving an impressive milestone with 11 million units sold in 2024, which gives it a lead over its American counterpart. With a commendable 48% share in the global EV market, China's prowess is further demonstrated by brands like GWM and Chery, who claim smaller slices of the same pie. In stark contrast, the European EV market share saw little growth with just 20%, while the US hovers around 10%, attempting to keep pace with China's meteoric rise.
Global EV Market
In 2025, the global EV market is projected to be dominated by China, which is expected to hold a significant 50-55% market share. This leadership is driven by the country's aggressive government policies, substantial subsidies, and a thriving domestic EV manufacturing sector, with companies like BYD, NIO, and XPeng leading the charge. Europe is anticipated to account for 25-30% of the global EV market, fueled by stringent emissions regulations, strong consumer incentives, and a well-established charging infrastructure, with key contributors including Germany, Norway, France, and the UK. The United States is forecasted to capture 10-15% of the market, supported by federal and state-level incentives, Tesla's market dominance, and increasing investments from traditional automakers. The rest of the world, including emerging markets like India, Japan, and South Korea, are expected to make up the remaining 10-15%, as these regions ramp up EV adoption through government initiatives, technological advancements, and growing consumer interest. Together, these trends highlight the shifting dynamics of the global automotive industry toward electrification.
EVs v.s. Non-EVs
But what about traditional non-EVs? They still have a role to play, albeit in a changing landscape. Non-EVs remain prevalent to varying degrees across China, Europe, and the US, with significant investments made in infrastructure supporting the burgeoning EV sector. In China, where approximately 60% of vehicles on the road are now electric, fuel consumption has notably decreased, squeezing the market for traditional vehicles.
Ironically, while China aggressively pushes further into EV markets in the US and Europe, they simultaneously expand their reach with non-EVs in markets such as Africa, where a reliance on traditional vehicles prevails due to underdeveloped EV infrastructure. Here, non-EVs from Chery and GWM find eager buyers, often at considerably lower prices than their US and European counterparts, marking a strategic win for Chinese brands.
Geopolitical Tensions
China's ascent in the EV space is hard to ignore, drawing both admiration and concern from traditional automotive powers. Geopolitical tensions have begun to manifest as tariffs, introduced by the Trump administration and echoed by EU President Ursula von der Leyen, illustrate attempts to curtail China's influence within their domestic markets. Yet, despite these regulatory challenges, China continues to thrive in the global market, showcasing resilience and adaptability against a backdrop of international competition.
By Cole Jackson: Lead Associate at the BRICS+ Consulting Group
Chinese & South American Specialist