The final round of the 2024 Rugby Championship sees South Africa and Argentina face off in Nelspruit at Mbombela Stadium. Both teams are chasing the title, with the Springboks needing just one point to secure their first full Rugby Championship victory since 2009. Argentina, on the other hand, must pull off a bonus-point win and deny the Boks any points to claim the title.
With Eben Etzebeth breaking the all-time Springbok cap record and the return of several key players, the Springboks are favoured to win, but Argentina will bring the fight after their one-point victory over South Africa last week. Let’s dive into the latest betting odds and predictions for this high-stakes clash.
Current Betting Odds
The odds are heavily in favour of South Africa, reflecting their home-ground advantage and the return of experienced players. Here’s a breakdown of the key odds according to Betway:
South Africa:
- Win: 1.09 (Bet R100 to win R109)
- Halftime/Fulltime: 1.28 (Bet R100 to win R128)
- Handicap -19.5: 2.03 (Bet R100 to win R203)
- Winning Margin 1-7 points: 6.20 (Bet R100 to win R620)
- Winning Margin 8-14 points: 4.30 (Bet R100 to win R430)
- Winning Margin 15+ points: 1.49 (Bet R100 to win R149)
- Winning Margin First Half 1-7 points: 3.15 (Bet R100 to win R315)
Argentina:
- Win: 9.20 (Bet R100 to win R920)
- Halftime/Fulltime: 12.00 (Bet R100 to win R1,200)
- Winning Margin 1-7 points: 13.00 (Bet R100 to win R1,300)
- Winning Margin 8-14 points: 35.00 (Bet R100 to win R3,500)
- Winning Margin 15+ points: 90.00 (Bet R100 to win R9,000)
Other Markets:
- Draw: 45.00 (Bet R100 to win R4,500)
- Halftime/Fulltime (Argentina/South Africa): 5.20 (Bet R100 to win R520)
- Halftime/Fulltime (South Africa/Argentina): 35.00 (Bet R100 to win R3,500)
Betway Head to Head
South Africa: 87% Draw: 2% Argentina: 11%
Points for: 60.6 (SA 28.0 Arg 32.6) Points against: 46.8 (SA 17.4 Arg 29.4)
Key Factors Influencing the Odds
1. Team Form and Recent Performance
South Africa comes into the game needing just one point to secure the Championship title. They have made several key changes to their squad, bringing back six double World Cup winners, including Siya Kolisi, Cheslin Kolbe, and Damian de Allende. Despite last week's narrow loss to Argentina, the Springboks remain the favourites, especially on home soil.
Argentina, however, will not be easy to beat. Their 29-28 victory in Santiago del Estero shows they have the capability to upset South Africa. However, pulling off a win in Nelspruit will be a much harder task for the Pumas.
2. Eben Etzebeth's Record
Eben Etzebeth will set a new Springbok record with his 128th cap, surpassing Victor Matfield. This milestone will add emotional significance to the game, and the team will likely rally behind their star lock. His presence in the second row, alongside Ruan Nortje, will provide stability and leadership for South Africa’s pack.
3. Home Advantage
South Africa has an excellent record at Mbombela Stadium, winning all of their previous Tests at the venue, including one against Argentina in 2016. The Springboks will also benefit from their passionate home crowd, adding to their advantage.
Argentina, however, has a strong fighting spirit. They have previously upset New Zealand in the tournament and will aim to repeat their heroics. But the Mbombela Stadium is known to be a fortress for the Springboks, and Argentina will need to overcome that hurdle.
4. Squad Depth and Selection
Rassie Erasmus has selected a strong side, bringing back several rested players for the decider. Manie Libbok starts at fly-half despite recent struggles with goal-kicking, but Erasmus has backed him to deliver with his all-around playmaking abilities. His combination with Jaden Hendrikse at scrum-half is a new pairing, which may create opportunities but could also pose challenges in terms of chemistry.
Argentina has made seven changes from last week, including a new centre partnership and a refreshed back three. These changes reflect a strategic shift, but they may struggle against South Africa's powerful line-up and depth on the bench, which includes the likes of Handre Pollard and Lukhanyo Am.
Expert Predictions and Insights
Most analysts are tipping South Africa to win comfortably, but Argentina’s ability to push the Springboks last week means that this could still be a close contest. While South Africa is expected to dominate up front, Argentina’s backline could trouble the Boks if they get good ball.
Expert Quote: "South Africa is in a strong position to win the Rugby Championship, but Argentina’s resilience in their home win shows they can cause trouble. With Etzebeth’s record and key players returning, the Springboks should secure the win, but it could be tighter than some expect."
Betting Tips
1. Handicap Betting
Given South Africa’s strength and the return of experienced players, the -19.5 Handicap at 2.03 offers solid value. If the Springboks dominate from the start, they could easily cover the spread, especially if their forward pack controls the game.
2. Winning Margin
If you expect a close contest, betting on South Africa to win by 1-7 points at 6.20 offers high returns. Argentina has shown they can stay within reach, and with last week’s one-point victory, this market provides a good balance of risk and reward.
For those expecting a more comfortable win, the 8-14 points margin at 4.30 is another attractive option. It strikes a balance between a tight contest and a clear Springbok win.
3. Argentina Upset
For risk-takers, backing Argentina to win offers huge potential returns. Their odds to win are set at 9.20, and with everything to play for, the Pumas will throw everything at South Africa. If you believe in an upset, this market is worth considering.
4. Halftime/Fulltime Market
If you think South Africa will dominate both halves, the Halftime/Fulltime bet at 1.28 is a relatively safe option with decent returns. Alternatively, for a higher-risk, higher-reward option, betting on Argentina/South Africa (Argentina leading at halftime but the Springboks winning fulltime) at 5.20 could be worth a punt.
Conclusion
South Africa is the clear favourite to win this decisive clash and claim the Rugby Championship title, but Argentina has shown they can’t be underestimated. With several markets offering high potential returns, including handicap and winning margin bets, there are plenty of opportunities for bettors to make the most of this thrilling encounter.
Whether you're backing the Springboks for a dominant win or expecting another close contest, this final match promises excitement as both teams vie for the title.
If you’re feeling adventurous like me, you might consider taking a punt on the Springboks leading at halftime but the Pumas pulling off a win at the full-time whistle, which is priced at 35/1. It’s a long shot, but with the unpredictable nature of rugby, especially in a high-stakes game like this, it could make for an exciting bet with a huge potential return!
Kick-off: 17:00 SAST
Venue: Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees: James Doleman (New Zealand), Craig Evans (Wales)
TMO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)
Springbok team: 15. Aphelele Fassi, 14. Cheslin Kolbe, 13. Jesse Kriel, 12. Damian de Allende, 11. Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10. Manie Libbok, 9. Jaden Hendrikse, 8. Jasper Wiese, 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6. Siya Kolisi, 5. Ruan Nortje, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Frans Malherbe, 2. Bongi Mbonambi, 1. Ox Nche
Replacements: 16. Malcolm Marx, 17. Gerhard Steenekamp, 18. Vincent Koch, 19. Elrigh Louw, 20. Kwagga Smith, 21. Cobus Reinach, 22. Handre Pollard, 23. Lukhanyo Am
Pumas team: 15. Santiago Carreras, 14. Rodrigo Isgro, 13. Matais Moroni, 12. Santiago Chocobares, 11. Mateo Carreras, 10. Tomas Albornoz, 9. Gonzalo Garcia, 8. Joaquin Oviedo, 7. Santiago Grondona, 6. Juan Martín Gonzalez, 5. Tomás Lavanini, 4. Pedro Rubiolo, 3. Joel Sclavi, 2. Julian Montoya, 1. Thomas Gallo
Replacements: 16. Ignacio Ruiz, 17. Ignacio Calles, 18. Pedro Delgado, 19. Franco Molina, 20. Pablo Matera, 21. Lautaro Bazan Velez, 22. Lucio Cinti, 23. Juan Cruz Mallia